Tuesday, January 19, 2010

High turnout may actually be the undoing of the Barack Obama agenda in Massachusetts

Obama carried Massachusetts by 26 points in November 2008. (His approval among registered voters there also appeared to be about +24 as of November 2009). So, if Democrats suffered from the same turnout gap in Massachusetts that they had in Virginia (which was billed as catastrophic at the time), Obama would be at a +17 or so. Instead, you have several pollsters showing him at a +1 or a +5 -- which would imply a turnout gap of 20 or 25 points, more than twice as bad as the one Democrats suffered from in VA. Image Credit: forum.prisonplanet.com

High turnout may actually be the undoing of the Barack Obama agenda in Massachusetts

With the nation focused on the events of the special election held to formally replace Senator Edward Kennedy (deceased) in the United States Senate, it is hard to imagine, sitting out here on the West Coast, what dynamics are at play that would have a Republican candidate win this election.

As it turns out, in a state that has one-million more registered Democrats than Republicans ... the citizens in Massachusetts apperar to want a change that runs deeper than the Hope and Change that our current President, Barack Obama, campainged on just a little over one year ago.

Three pollsters -- Suffolk, MRG and PPP -- all place Obama's approval between a net +1 and a net +5, and each have the raw approve number under 50 percent. These polling results are basically identical to how Obama is polling nationally at the moment ... and this is Massachusetts.

What this will translate to ... is that Scott Brown will be voted into office based upon an overall approval of Barack Obama of under 50% and a strong voter turnout will only magnify this effect. Further, add this to the fact that people see that they have a chance to change their own liberal political dynamic for the first time in decades.

The Boston Globe calls election for Marth Coakley ... EIGHT HOURS before the polls in Massachusetts actually close. Mmmmmm! they must be clairvoyant. Now, if the final numbers end up matching these on this screen shot chart, the Republicans may really have reason to question the integrity of the process... [ctrl-click image to view larger image] Image Credit: The Boston Phoenix

... and what does Barack Obama say about the prospect of a Scott Brown victory over Martha Coakley?

This excerpted and edited from the Washington Examiner -

Obama: Coakley victorious if Brown gets less than 60 percent
By: Scott Ott - Examiner Columnist - January 19, 2010

As voters in Massachusetts go to the polls today to decide who will complete the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's unexpired term, President Obama declared that "anything less than a 20-point win by Scott Brown represents a resounding endorsement of my entire domestic and foreign policy agenda."

"If Brown ends up with less than 60 percent, there's gonna be a lot of sullen Republicans, moping around, hanging their heads," said the president to a crowd of supporters that greeted him upon his return from stumping for Democrat Martha Coakley. "Such a thin margin against such a historically weak opponent would be tantamount to a crushing loss for Scott, and would signal a clear rejection of the GOP platform in general."

A spokesman for the Coakley campaign agreed that "the only real question now is, how embarrassing will Scott Brown's win be?"
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